PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY WOLF NUMBERS BASED ON NONLINEAR DYNAMO THEORY AND EARTH WEATHER

A one dimensional nonlinear dynamo model no R model is used for study predictability of solar activity Wolf numbers The nonlinearity includes the dynamical equation for the magnetic helicity the magnetic part of the alpha effect and algebraic nonlinearity of the total alpha effect The diffusion flux of magnetic helicity is taken into account This model reproduces enough well the Maunder Minimum of the solar activity and butterfly diagrams Properties of the nonlinear dynamo model are studied carefully: limit cycle period amplitude and asymmetry amplitude relations are compared with result of solar observations